Monday, December 21, 2009

Biglari's $300 Steak Burger?

No the steakburgers are not really $300, actually you can get a double steakburger with fries for a very reasonable $4. The $300 price tag I'm referring to is the newly 1-20 reverse stock split. Starting Monday the 21st of December 2009 Steak n Shake will trade in the $250-$300 per share range. Steak n Shake just released their full year and fourth quarter results for 2009 earlier in the week which you can find here. In his annual letter to share holders Biglari points out that he will focus Steak n Shakes future growth through the purchase of other equities other than just the restaurant business. In a nut shell this is no longer just a hamburger chain but a investment holding company. As I mentioned in my last update that Steak n Shake ($SNS) has taken a 10% stake in Freemont Michigan Insuracorp ($FMMH) a small insurance company located in the town of Freemont, Michagan. Biglari will look for undervalued companies which he will purchase through his new investment vehicle Steak n Shake. As stated in his annual shareholder letter, they "aim to grow long-term cash flows, not reported earnings. Their view on reported earnings is that they are not real until converted to cash." Wall Street always focuses on earnings and this is what you often see in the media. In the long run a company must earn money however what should be focused on is the free cash flow. Earnings can be manipulated and often can show a distorted picture while cash flow is more transparent. It will be interesting to see the transformation take place over the coming quarters and next few years.

Wednesday, December 2, 2009

Markel Corps Private Acquisitions

Markel Corp. (MKL)
which is a property and casualty insurance company that specializes in specialty insurance products such as wind and earthquake exposed commercial properties, high valued motorcycles, personal, watercrafts, even horse related risks is becoming more and more like Berkshire Hathaway(BRKA, BRKB) as time passes on. Yesterday Markel announced that it acquired Baltimore-based Ellicott Dredge Enterprises LLC which is a 124-year old maker of Dredges. Markel first stepped into the private equity arena almost 5 years ago buying a major stake in a bakery manufacturer. This is a practice that Warrren Buffett has been doing for over 40 years and is quite successful at it. By buying into private concerns Markel is able to get 80-100% of these smaller companies unlike their passive investments in larger holdings such as General Elecrtic(GE), Wal-Mart (WMT), and Carmax (KMX) . By buying majority stakes of these smaller companies Gayner is counting on double digit returns. As you see by the list below these are simple businesses to understand. It seems Tom Gayner who runs the investment arm of Markel adheres to the same practices as Buffett, which is buying businesses that are simple and that have good management already intact. You will notice that their are no high-tech, fashionable companies in this group.

Private acquisitions since 2005

  • Acquires majority stake in AMF Bakery Systems- Located in Richmond Virginia is the world's leading manufacturer of quality bakery equipment for high volume bakeries since 1915.
  • Acquires Parkland Ventures- which owns and operates mobile home parks around the country.
  • Acquires 40 percent stake in First Market Bank- First Market Bank was founded and is headquartered in Richmond and mostly owned by the Ukrop family who own a chain of super markets in central Virginia. Now celebrating its twelfth anniversary, the bank has grown to more than 300 employees and has a network of 39 full-service locations (including 25 in Ukrop's stores and 14 freestanding branches). It has more than $1 billion in deposits and offers a full range of retail and commercial products including mortgage, trust and investment services. Earlier in the year First Market announced a merger with Union Bankshares Corporation. When the merger is complete the combined organization will have 97 branch locations throughout Virginia with more than $4.0 billion in assets.
  • Acquires Panel Specialist- is a leading manufacturer of panels, partitions, wall systems, casework, furniture, and countertops. Their customers include project managers, architects, and builders within five specialized divisions with annual revenues are over 30 million dollars.
  • Acquires an unspecified majority interest in Baltimore- based Ellicott Dredge Enterprises LLC- located in Baltimore Maryland has designed and manufactured over 1500 dredges, more than any other manufacturer, and has served customers in over 8- countries. They market their products through two divisions. The Ellicott Division sells pre-engineered standard dredges primarily to the marine contracting and sand and gravel markets. Ellicott Dredge is the only dredge builder which designs and builds all key components of the dredging system- from winches to pumps, from excavators to spud carriages. This concept of single responsibility lies behind Ellicott's reputation for reliable and durable dredges. Because of this approach, many Ellicott dredges are still going strong after 50 years of steady service. Ellicott also built all of the dredges used in the original construction of the Panama Canal.

Markel has over a one hundred and ten publicly traded companies totaling 1.3 billion dollars in its investment portfolio.

*Author currently long BRKB, MKL

Monday, November 9, 2009

Steak n Shake Transforming Into Mini Berkshire Hathaway

Sardar Biglari acting CEO of Steak n Shake has wasted no time in turning the company into a holding company much like Warren Buffett did with Berkshire Hathaway. Biglari is using Steak n Shakes $SNS free cash flow to buy a 9.9% steak in Fremont Michigan Insuracorp $FMMH. Fremont Michigan InsuraCorp, Inc. is a holding company owning all of the outstanding shares of Fremont Insurance Company. Fremont Insurance Company is a Michigan licensed property and casualty insurer operating exclusively in the State of Michigan and writing principally personal lines, commercial lines, farm and marine insurance policies through independent agents. They were founded in 1876 and have served Michigan policyholders for over 131 years. They market policies through approximately 175 independent insurance agencies. Fremont Insurance Company has a financial strength rating of “B++” (Good) by A.M. Best. Biglari had mentioned before he would like to get into the insurance arena if the right opportunity came along. Why an insurance business? The insurance business should add another stream of income and more free cash flow to acquire other businesses as they arise. Fremont has over 10 million in cash with no debt. Current book value is $23.63 per share. This looks like a good candidate for Biglari and company however I do not see Biglari being a passive investor in this investment. Could this be just an initial stake, soon to be a subsidiary of Biglari's Steak n Shake holding company? Time will tell. Take note that this is much like Buffett started out over 50 years ago and we no how that turned out.

Company/SymbolMarket CapCashBook Value p/share Price p/share
Steak n Shake / $SNS$348.3 mil$37.8 mil$10.02 $12.09
Fremont Mich Insuracorp / $FMMH$37.4 mil$10.5 mil$23.63 $21.45

More Relevant Articles from these great sites:

"This tiny company could be the next Berkshire Hathaway" @ The Daily Crux
"Sardar Biglari Buys 9.9% Fremont Insuracorp" @ Street Capitalist
"Western Sizzlin Corp Completes Distribution of Special Dividend of Steak n Shake Shares" @ CNN Money

Author is currently long SNS

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Wednesday, November 4, 2009

The Great Iron Horse Burlington Northern's New Engineer: Warren Buffett

Buffett gave us subtle hints almost 3 years ago when he stated he wanted to "bag an elephant", who new the elephant was a "Iron Horse" (a pseudonym for steam engine). Buffett has said in the past he was looking for a large deal, something that would move the needle- the needle being Berkshires enormous stock portfolio. Well Warren Buffett just bought Burlington Northern Santa Fe, that is the whole company. BNSF will now be under the Berkshire Hathaway umbrella with companies such as Geico, Dairy Queen, See's Candies, and Shaw Carpets (see the whole list here). This is by far the largest deal Buffett has ever done which totals a whopping 44 billion. Before this, Berkshire's biggest acquisition was the $16 billion stock purchase of reinsurance giant General Re, announced in 1998. Buffett, who has been building up his rail holdings for several years was in the headlines back in early 2007 when it was announced that he had taken positions in several of the major rail carriers. But why did he zero in on Burlington Northern. Here are some of the pieces to the puzzle:

1) it's a business (railroads) that easy to understand

2) it's has a high return on equity which is currently 15% for the trailing 12 months (last year it was 19%)

3) it's a business with a moat (has high barrier to entry) not just anyone can start a railroad company

4) it's had consistent earnings

5) it's very efficient way of moving goods

6) it's a play on coal and other commodities

7) it's throwing off lots of free cash flow

8) it has high-quality management (its track record speaks for itself)

Many people wondered why he had suddenly fallen in love with the sector. The simple answer is globalisation. With booming demand for commodities from the Far East and a hunger for cheap foreign goods in the West, the rail companies linking consumer and producer look appealing for the long haul. Buffett has said he realized a few years late that railroads were an appealing investment. As diesel prices rise, shipping by rail instead of truck becomes more attractive, and it would be extremely difficult for a competitor to build a new railroad. Continuing upward pressure of fuel costs make rail transport increasingly more competitive with the trucking fleet and shall prompt more wholesale purchasing within our own continent. The dominant trend is the demand for raw materials and machinery to fuel the construction booms in China and India. US rail firms transport grains and building and construction products for export; US exports to China. "I basically believe this country will prosper and more people will be moving more goods 10, 20, 30 years from now and the rails will benefit," Buffett told CNBC. It's also a bet on the future of another country -- China. China craves the coal and other raw materials that the U.S. produces. Those commodities fuel the great economic engine that is China, which is the factory to the world. U.S. coal and goods are shipped via rail to Pacific ports and then shipped to China. With his round-out purchase of Burlington Northern, Buffett thinks China will continue to be strong.

* Author is currently long BNI

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Friday, October 23, 2009

Steak N Shakes Flipping Burgers into $$$

I have written about Sardar Biglari a few times since the start of the year. It appears more on Wall Street are taking notice of this fund manager. This article is from the Wall Street Journals news wire... Steak N Shake 'Already Flowing with Cash'.

Biglari runs a partnership much like the one Warren Buffett ran earlier in his career.

Biglari who started buying Steak N Shake shares a couple years ago is currently the largest shareholder. He is also the acting CEO. He is what you would call a share holder activist. Share holder activists are usually investors who usually take a large stake in a company and push for a turnaround, this is usually when the stock has performed poorly. Not always is this good for the small shareholder but in the case with biglari, his interests are in line with shareholders. As the article states Steak N Shake is already producing free cash flow. Trailing 12 months free cash flow is 35.9 million (see chart below). Biglari has stated before that he could use the cash to buy back shares which decreases the shares outstanding which would help boost the bottom line. He can also take the excess cash and put it to use in better performing businesses, much like buffett has done over the last half century.

Management Direction

"New management, during the fourth quarter of fiscal year 2008, enacted a change in strategic direction under which we began to operate in a manner designed to generate cash. Our long-term objective is to maximize intrinsic business value per share of the Company. (Intrinsic value is computed by taking all future cash flows into and out of the business and then discounting the resultant number at an appropriate interest rate.) Thus, our financial goal is to maximize free cash flow and return on invested capital. We regard capital allocation as immensely important to creating shareholder value. Steak n Shake is transforming into a holding company. Its basic premise is to reinvest cash generated from its operating subsidiaries into any investments with the objective of achieving high risk-adjusted returns. Pursuant to a resolution of the Company’s Board of Directors on June 17, 2009, all investment and other capital allocation decisions are made for the Company by Sardar Biglari, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer. "

Steak N Shake might sell burgers, fries and shakes, however one day they could very well be selling insurance. Biglari is also the largest shareholder of Western Sizzlin (WEST) which he plans on rolling into Steak N Shake which should take place in the coming months.

Free Cash Flow $Mil200620072008TTM
Cash from Operations69.643.424.442.0
Cap Ex(80.8)(68.6)(31.4)(6.1)
Free Cash Flow(11.3)(25.2)(7.0)35.9

Author is currently long SNS

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Wednesday, October 14, 2009

A look at 5 Defensive Plays 1 Year Later!

Here is a look at five defensive stocks I wrote about 1 year earlier and where they are now. The market was tanking but did not reach a bottom for another 5 months. Keep in mind that their are many fundamentals to look for when picking individual stocks, however I tried to kept it simple with just a few important ratios mentioned here.

1) The P/E ratio All five stocks mentioned at the time had a P/E ratio of under 18. Only three currently have P/E's under 18.

2) Return On Equity or REO All had REO's of 14% or better while four of these still do. The higher this figure the better. REO shows how well a company uses investment funds to generate earnings growth.

3) Dividend Yield All paid dividends, and all have increased their payouts since.

4) Debt to Equity Ratio This is a measure of a company's financial leverage. Debt/equity ratio is equal to long- term debt divided by common share holders' equity. Generally the lower this figure the better. Last year P&G had the highest D/E ratio in this group which was .52 today it stands at .33 .

These are the types of companies that the legendary investor Warren Buffett invests in. In fact Coca Cola (KO), Costco (COST), Johnson & Johnson (JNJ), and Proctor & Gamble (P
G) are a part of Buffett's holding company Berkshire Hathaway. The five stocks mentioned returned a combined 11.05% before dividends. If you add on the average annual dividend yield of 2.67% for these five companies over the past year you will get a 13.72% total return. You will notice that all five issues are companies that make products we use and consume everyday, which is another trait that Buffet looks for.

One year later three out of five still look reasonably priced, those being HRL, JNJ, and PG.

Author currently long JNJ.

Tuesday, October 13, 2009

Cash Flowing & Growing!

Even though we have seen the markets rise over the last few months
and many investors/traders calling for a market correction somewhere near here.
These four companies have been passing on profits(through dividends)
to shareholders while growing their businesses. These stocks still look cheap by
their EV/EBITDA ratio of under 6 and low P/E multiples under 10.
Earnings and book value have both increased at double digit rates over the last five years. Two of these company's have tripled off their market lows but still look cheap.

CompanySymbolYieldPrice as of 9/7/2009P/EEPS Gwth (5yr Hist)Earnings Yield (EPS/Price Per Sh)Book Value Gwth(5yr Avg)Cash Flow Gwth (Cur vs.Prior TTM
Apogee EnterprisesAPOG2.2%$14.698.660.60%11.9%13.2%28%
Innophos HoldingsIPHS3.4%$19.802.481%43%32.2%39%
Safety InsuranceSAFT4.75%$33.689.518.5%10.6%16.1%20.3%

Apogee transforms plain glass to create distinctive solutions for
architects, building owners, contractors, picture framers and others. Our glass and aluminum window,store front and curtainwall
systems make commercial buildings look great, reduce energy consumption and protect against hurricanes and blasts. Apogee's glass also reduces fading and reflection for picture framing customers. We combine the expertise of our people to engineer glass and metal building fa├žades, complete massive orders for skyscrapers on time, and manage complex window, curtainwall and storefront installation projects. We also provide glass that makes framed art and pictures look better, while helping framers improve profitability. Leaders in our markets, Apogee leverages the strengths of our products and people to deliver distinctive solutions.

*Here's what The Fools say A Top-rated building products companies

Innophos is a

leading producer of specialty grade

phosphate products for the Food, Pharmaceutical and Industrial market segments. Within these segments our products cover a broad range of applications including water, paper and metal treatment, agriculture, electronics, textiles, tablets, meat

preservation and detergents. For example, specialty phosphates act as flavor enhancers in beverages, leavening agents in baked goods and cleaning agents in toothpaste. With over a century of experience, Innophos and its predecessor companies have pioneered the processes whereby complex phosphates are derived from organic phosphate rock. Our products are produced to the highest standards of quality and consistency with most of our global production facilities operating to ISO 9002 and GMP accreditation. We also hold a number of key patents governing the manufacture and use of phosphates and continue to develop new and innovative phosphate based products to address specific customer applications.

*A Magic Formula Stock with a 5 Star Rating From The Fool

Safety Insurance is a leading provider of private passenger automobile insurance in Massachusetts. In addition to private passenger automobile insurance (which represented 71.7% of their direct written premiums in 2008), they offer a portfolio of property and casualty insurance products, including commercial automobile (13.2% of 2008 direct written premium), homeowners (11.6% of 2008 direct written premium), dwelling fire, umbrella and business owner policies. Operating primarily in Massachusetts through their insurance subsidiaries, Safety Insurance Company, Safety Indemnity Insurance Company, and Safety Property and Casualty Insurance Company,
they have established strong relationships with 827 independent insurance
agents in 969 locations throughout Massachusetts.

Tidewater through its subsidiaries, provides offshore supply vessels and marine support services to the offshore energy industry through the operation of fleet of offshore marine service vessels. It offers services to support various phases of offshore exploration, development, and production, including towing of and anchor handling of mobile drilling rigs and equipment; transporting supplies and personnel; and assisting in offshore construction activities.

Author long APOG

Please note that Apogee came up in an earlier screening I did. 11 Small Cap Stocks Trading Near Book Value

Monday, October 5, 2009

Update On Thor Industries

Thor Industries $THO is the world's largest manufacturer of recreation vehicles and a major builder of commercial buses. I first mentioned Thor back in January 2009 when it was trading at $13.50 per share. The stock was used as an example of a company that the seasoned value investor Walter Schloss might pick if he were still picking stocks on a professional basis. Schoss had a very impressive track record during his years managing money. He was also a part of Ben Graham's alumni.

The stock has had an impressive run this year. I believe the stock price has gotten a little ahead of itself. They just announced today that they were making a special one time payout of 50 cents per share on their dividend. This is in addition to their quarterly payout of 7 cents per share. This is probably why the stock price ran up today.

10 months ago this stock traded at around 1X book value, where as now it trades for 2.3 book. Management still holds a big stake in this company at 39%, which is a plus, and aligns them with shareholders. The company still has a nice cash cushion of over 328 million with NO debt and free cash flow. All good looking figures for any value investor on the lookout for a new business to allocate money in. In fact Warren Buffett bought a similar business Forest River back in 2005, it to had NO debt. It would not suprize me if Buffett or another company would come in and buy this company outright. While I still feel that this is a very well managed company and things are looking up, the margin of safety is not where it was 10 months ago.

*Author does not currently have position in $THO

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Wednesday, September 30, 2009

Versar involved in $3 billion Air Force contract

Versar among 16 companies receiving $3 billion contract for environmental work; shares soar

Government contractor Versar Inc. said Wednesday it is one of 16 small businesses that received a $3 billion five year Air Force contract for environmental and other work.

The contract by the Air Force's center for engineering and the environment, which includes an eight-year performance period, calls for environmental restoration services, construction and services in support of the Military Munitions Response Program.

*11 Small Cap Stocks Trading Near Book Value

Tuesday, September 29, 2009

Two Under Valued Companies Trading at Their Cash Value

Without getting into the current Healthcare Reform issues. Here are two managed-care companies Humana Inc. and Molina Healthcare that are now selling for what they currently have in cash. Humana has nearly doubled off its march low while Molina is only up about 30 percent. Both have current ratio's above the 1.5 ratio, which is a measure of a company's ability to pay back short- term debt with its short term assets. A ratio of under 1 shows that they might be hard pressed to pay off any monies owed if it were due at that point. Molina is currently trading at 1x book value while Humana has a book value ratio of 1.28. Molina has increased its book value almost 5.5x since 2002
while Humana has increased theirs 3x which is a key measure that Warren Buffett looks for.Both seem to be consistent free cash flow generators another key measure that most value investors look for. Income investors might want to look elsewhere due to the fact that neither company pays a dividend.

CompanySymbolCash/sharePrice as of 9/28/2009Book value/shareCurrent ratio
P/E ratioMarket cap
HumanaHUM$36.57$38.03 $29.821.627.56.3b
Molina HealthcareMOH$21.59$20.97$20.941.889.4537m

*The Molina family along with other insiders hold 51% of the stock. Currently 20% of the float is being shorted.

*Value Investor Bruce Berkowitz of The Fairholme Fund ($FAIRX) owns 9.5 million shares of Humana which represents a top ten holding for the fund.

Tuesday, September 22, 2009

Spot Light On A Small Cap Stock

Vicon Industries $VII Industries is an industry-leading designer, manufacturer and marketer of video systems and components used for security, surveillance, safety and control purposes. Celebrating over 40 years in business, the company is unrivalled in experience developing video surveillance technologies. Vicon systems are employed worldwide in high-profile, enterprise-scale installations by a diverse range of customers, including governments, Fortune 500 companies, private and public institutions, and global transit and commerce hubs.

Vicon currently trades at 4x current free cash flow with a Book Value of 7.6. Currently the stock is trading at $5.85 per share. Management has a 39% stake in the business. It also has a earnings yield of 11.24% which is double the S&P 500’s earnings yield of 5.29%. Recently the company was named to Fortune Magazine’s 2009 Fastest Growing Small Public Companies.

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11 Small Cap Stocks Trading Near Book Value

Benjamin Graham considered the father of security analysis and value investing used a set of tools to pick stocks. These tools much like a carpenter uses to build or fix a house, Graham used to find undervalued stocks. His tools were low P/E ratios, stocks that traded near book value, stocks that made money over the past 5 years, and stocks that showed consistency of paying a dividend. Here is a list of 11 small cap companies trading near their book value. Most of these companies have several characteristics that a Value Investor such as Graham would be looking for. All trade at a low P/E ratio with earnings growth over the last five years. All but one pay a dividend. Six of these issues have paid out a dividend for 10 straight years.

American Physicians Capital- founded in 1975 through its subsidiaries, is a regional provider of medical professional liability insurance focused primarily in the Midwest, with Michigan, Illinois, Ohio, Kentucky, and New Mexico as our core states. Based on direct written premiums as reported by A.M. Best Company, we are among the top writers of professional liability in Michigan, New Mexico and Illinois. We rank 19th nationally among professional liability insurers, with approximately 9,300 policies in-force.

Apogee Enterprises- founded in 1949 and is based in Minneapolis, Minnesota transforms plain glass to create distinctive solutions for architects, building owners, contractors, picture framers and others. Our glass and aluminum window, storefront and curtainwall systems make commercial buildings look great, reduce energy consumption and protect against hurricanes and blasts. Apogee's glass also reduces fading and reflection for picture framing customers.

Chase Corporation- founded in 1946 and is headquartered in Bridgewater, Massachusetts engages in the manufacture of specialty tapes, laminates, sealants, and coatings, as well as in the provision of contract assembly services for the electronics industry worldwide.

Espey Mfg. & Electronics Corp.- founded in 1928 and is based in Saratoga Springs, New York engages in the development, design, production, and sale of electronic power supplies, various transformers and iron-core components, and electronic system components primarily in the United States.

Friedman Industries- founded in 1965 and is based in Houston, Texas. Together with its subsidiaries, engages in steel processing, pipe manufacturing and processing, and steel and pipe distribution in the United States.

Oil Dri Corp. of America - founded in 1941 is a leading developer, manufacturer and marketer of products for consumer, industrial and automotive, agricultural, sports fields and fluids purification markets. Oil-Dri -- Creating Value From Sorbent Minerals

Preformed Line Products Company- founded in 1947 and is headquartered in Mayfield Village, Ohio. Together with its subsidiaries, designs and manufactures products and systems employed in the construction and maintenance of overhead and underground networks for the energy, telecommunication, cable operators, and information industries worldwide.

Patterson-UTI Energy- founded in 1978 provides onshore contract drilling services to exploration and production companies in North America. The Company has approximately 350 marketable land-based drilling rigs that operate primarily in oil and natural gas producing regions of Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Arkansas, Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama, Colorado, Arizona, Utah, Wyoming, Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Pennsylvania, West Virginia and western Canada. Patterson-UTI Energy, Inc. is also engaged in the businesses of pressure pumping services and drilling and completion fluid services.

Servotronics- founded in 1959 engages in the design, development, and manufacture of high quality components, systems and sub-systems for use wherever precise control, reliability and cost containment are primary requirements.

The Stephan Co.- founded in 1897 and is headquartered in Fort Lauderdale, Florida together with its subsidiaries, engages in the manufacture, sale, and distribution of hair care and personal care products.

Versar- founded in 1969 and based in Springfield, Virginia provides various professional services to the government and private sector with solutions for infrastructure, facilities management, construction, environmental quality, defense, and homeland security needs in the United States and internationally.

TickerPrice as of
Book ValuePrice Book RatioFree Cash FlowP/ECurrent RatioMkt CapTotal DebtEarnings Growth Past 5 yrsYield %Industry
ACAP 29.5422.371.37 40.9m8.544.92313.4m25.9m24.31.1Property & Casualty
APOG 15.9411.511.35 31.2m8.941.63444.8m8.4m31.42.2General Building Material
CCF11.67.861.46 12m13.573.0499.1m07.83.1Industrial Equipment & Components
ESP18.113.441.37 4.7m14.2313.338.2m0535.1Diversified Electronics
FRD6.158,2.753.8m4.389.4841.8m54,03016.270.6Steel & Iron
ODC14.3112.931.14 5m11.232.92101.1m21.5m12.714Specialty Chemicals
PLPC 39.5028.191.40 5m13.483.07206.8m7.8m11.42Heavy Construction
PTEN 15.0413.811.11 168.6m12.452.052.3b011.81.3Oil & Gas Drilling & Exploration
SVT7.209.63.782m6.324.9213.9m4.1m38.152Industrial Electrical Equipment
TSC2.425.51.462.1m13.976.6110.3m426,00022.133.3Personal Products
VSR4. Services